Re: Tony Best Musical Showcases:
The trend in recent years has been to use a number that gives everyone in the cast a chance to be on stage. So my best hunches would be the following:
"One Day in the Emerald City" from Wicked, as it utilizes the entire cast. This will probably lead off the show, because it takes Menzel a while to get out of her makeup (I've heard she practically has to steam it off).
Avenue Q will probably use "It Sucks to Be Me," as it uses most everyone in the cast. Katie Monster doesn't have the same make-up problems as Idina.
The Boy From Oz will of course showcase Jackman, and will probably have the mid-show spot, to keep the show from getting too dull. Any number that boasts lots of chorus will work.
This leaves Caroline, or Change. I'm not familiar with the score (has it been recorded yet?), but this is the one case where I can see the selected number featuring the star, Pinkins. Who will then be standing in the wings as the "Best Actress" award is given...to someone else. And the camera will linger on her a second or two too long, just to make everyone uncomfortable.
We might also get Revival featured numbers. But again, I would lay odds on numbers featuring chorus. That way, we'll get lots of confusing cuts away from whoever is singing at the moment, in favor of shots from cameras close to stage level, looking up at the now unrecognizable performers. And there will be no performance from Big River, for the obvious closure reason.
Whoever is directing the show is probably glad I Am My Own Wife isn't a musical, since it's also a one-man show. How can they train the camera on the wrong person when there's no other person to shoot?