Re: making back investments: WICKED will make back its money in 16 months if they continue to sell at 100% capacity, with people paying full price on those $100+ tickets. MILLIE sold very well after it opened--it was nearly impossible to get a ticket for many weeks--and then, all of a sudden, it became yesterday's news with HAIRSPRAY opening up the street. The Marquis is a HUGE theatre, and they've not come anywhere near filling it, unfortunately, for many months now--even when Sutton was still in the show. I can see where they won't make their money back on the Broadway production, but they'll make it back in spades on the tour. And trust me, since MTI got the amateur and regional rights to the show, people have been calling like crazy trying to get it.
Re. theatre groupies: I don't really understand it myself. I look at RENT-heads and think, "why!?" But then I look back on myself in the early '90's (I was a late theatre-bloomer) and I remember that I was most definitely a LES MIZ and PHANTOM-head. The idea of teenaged theatre fans is a great one, and while it's baffling to see so many teens rallying up for MILLIE or RENT or even VAMPIRES and TABOO, I think it's important to remember: THANK GOD KIDS ARE GOING TO THE THEATRE! I don't say this to be offensive, but many of them are the theatre queens and "hags" of the future who have just recently discovered musicals (and in many cases, themselves), and many of them jump on the bandwagon of whatever show got them hooked. PHANTOM was the show that got me--I have no shame in admitting that--and I still defend the virtues of that show to this day. And living in the midwest, it was difficult to see these shows that I loved so much, so I went every chance I had. I saw PHANTOM three times in Louisville...twice in Nashville, TN and once in Dallas, TX. Now that I'm in New York, I've seen it twice and I know if I wanted to see it again, it's just a hop-skip-and-a-jump off the E-train. I think sometimes people in "the biz" (mostly, those of us who live in New York), take live theatre for granted in the sense that here there's relatively easy access to it. Maybe not financially easy, but there are ways to see it if you really want to. For these kids out in Oklahoma City or Madison, WI, Broadway seems worlds away, and cast recordings and national tours are their only exposure to these shows. If and when they get the rare opportunity to visit New York, they stock up on their favorite show(s). It's like teens and rock bands, I guess. I don't understand Dead-Heads, but they're out there...and people literally followed the Grateful Dead around the country.
I think it's also important to look at the messages that these shows that people flock to are making. MILLIE is about a young girl coming out of her shell--finding herself. RENT is about a group of misfits in various stages of love, who accept each other and love each other despite their flaws and differences. PHANTOM: A flawed man pining for the love of a beautiful girl that he can never have, but she sort of falls for him anyway--not because of his looks, but because of his soul. LES MIZ: The downtrodden searching for hope and love in a time where there seemed to be none. TABOO: Misfits trying to find their place in the world. All of these shows have messages that teenagers can relate to. Obviously there's SOMETHING to the story of RENT--we don't really question people who see LA BOHEME every year. People have been reading LES MISERABLES and PHANTOM OF THE OPERA since they were first published, and teenagers have been looking for their "place" in the world ever since Cain and Abel. I think that's why they go. But that's just my opinion...