Der B- to answer your question
First of all, I don't believe the polls. They have never been accurate about the caucuses. During the last campaign, as of New Year's Eve, then a couple weeks before caucuses, John Kerry was still in a distant third or maybe even fourth. Howard Dean was still considered unbeatable in the polls. We all know how that came out.
Secondly, the caucuses really aren't just a vote, they are a fluid thing. Our primary isn't until June. What we do at the caucuses is determine delegates to the county convention. There they pick delegates to the district and there they pick the delegates to the state where they pick delegates to the national convention. If you are a delegate, you can change you vote at any stage of the game. So, it's really a goofy system
Thirdly, I'm still a Richardson fan and am a Richardson precinct chair right now, but that doesn't mean on caucus night I won't have to change my vote. The way the precinct caucuses work is that you go to the caucus site and the registered voters sign in. At the starting time the doors are locked (well at least figuratively) and a count is taken of eligible caucus goers. Challenges to people who may not really be eligible are made and observers have to go to a part of the room away from those who are eligible. People are given the opportunity to present resolutions that they would like to have made a part of the party platform. These are voted on and then you physically divide up into groups based on who you support. (sometimes the process is reversed) .
Now the math part. At this point you calculate what I think it's 15% of the total number of eligible voters is. Then you count the number of people for each candidate if it's 15% or more the candidate is viable and will get at least one delegate. If the candidate doesn't have 15%, then the candidate is not viable. BUT, then everyone is free to try to convince others to join their candidate, so a candidate who wasn't viable can become viable and visa versa.
So, even though I'm a precinct chair, if my precinct doesn't have 15% support for Richardson I will either have to go to another candidate or go to the undecided group (if that is viable). The whole process can take around 3 hours or so.
At this point I am still for Richardson with Edwards as my second choice.Don't count Richardson out of getting in the top 3, his goal for Iowa. He has gone to all 99 counties in Iowa and a delegate in the middle of nowhere means the same as a delegate from Des Moines or Iowa City. And you never know who will really turn out on caucus night. It's January 3, so many of the college students will be on break and families may be on vacation etc. No one is quite sure how that will effect turn out.
