LA TIMESder Brucer
DEXTER has had a chance before this year to make it into the top 5 and didn't, so I'm not hopeful of its chances. Ditto TNT's entries no matter how deserving.
Of those mentioned, I think MAD MEN has the best shot. It seems universally adored, but there's no '24' this year, GREY'S ANATOMY has had a mediocre season, too, though it might sneak in just from habit. HEROES, which made the cut last year, probably won't make it this year.
So, I'm guessing LOST, MAD MEN, HOUSE, DAMAGES, and GREY'S ANATOMY.