T.O.D.
When I lived in Los Angeles, I used to be a champ at predicting the Oscars; won a lot of pools.
Now, since I don't go to the movies any more and wait until a film is available on DVD, I often don't see a film until after the Awards ceremony.
That said: Even though I've read a lot of negatives about the movie recently, it appears that LA LA LAND will win Best Picture and Emma Stone Best Actress.
After the SAG Awards, I would give Denzel Washington, Viola Davis and Mahershala Ali the edge for the other acting honors.
Of all the films I've seen this year thus far, my personal favorite is HELL OR HIGH WATER, but I doubt if that will take any awards.
Actually, depending on how political the show gets, I might do what I did last year (i.e. go into my office and work on my new play). If I want to hear about politics, I can watch the nightly news.