Our very own Mark Bakalor has a website where through some mathematical computation predicts the win. He usually does very well. He has never gotten 100%, but the blogs and critics who do make the predictions never get 100% and that is if they make predictions in all the categories.
Here is the link to the complete list of predictions.
http://oscarcentral.com/I have include a list of some of the awards where I have indicated who I would like to see win rather than who will be the actual winners.
PictureSlumdog Millionaire 31%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 20%
Milk 19%
Frost/Nixon 16%
The Reader 14%
Although Slumdog Millionaire has a lock on this award as it has won practically every other award. Milk might be the surprise winner as Academy has (I assume) many gay members and they just might vote for this film
Director Slumdog Millionaire 33%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 21%
Milk 16%
Frost/Nixon 15%
The Reader 15%
Actor Mickey Rourke 28%
Sean Penn 26%
Frank Langella 17%
Brad Pitt 15%
Richard Jenkins 13%
I think the Frank Langella just might win here as the votes just might have split between Rourke and Penn. Langella has been around for a long time and is a highly respected actor in the industry.
ActressKate Winslet 30%
Meryl Streep 23%
Anne Hathaway 18%
Angelina Jolie 16%
Melissa Leo 14%
I would like to see Ann Hathaway win as it was a break from her “sweet” roles. Although she had a great turn in Brokeback Mountain. This performance was a lot rawer and I think she was nominated more for the performance than being Meryl Streep who seems to be nominated for practically any movie she appears in. Kate Winslet was a surprise nominee for The Reader, which won her awards in the Supporting Category, and this may work against her although the Academy saw fit to nominate in the role instead of Revolutionary Road.
Supporting ActorHeath Ledger 33%
Robert Downey Jr. 18%
Josh Brolin 18%
Philip Seymour Hoffman 17%
Michael Shannon 14%
I would have chosen Heath Ledger even if he had not passed away
Supporting Actress Penelope Cruz 30%
Viola Davis 23%
Marisa Tomei 17%
Taraji P. Henson 15%
Amy Adams 15%
No choice here
Original Screenplay Milk 31%
Wall-E 21%
In Bruges 17%
Happy-Go-Lucky 17%
Frozen River 15%
Adapted Screenplay Slumdog Millionaire 33%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 19%
Frost / Nixon 16%
The Reader 16%
Doubt 15%
I love the structure used in telling the story of Slumdog Millionaire. No screenplay 101 (in my opinion) in telling the story. Both Frost/Nixon and Doubt are adaptations of stage plays and latter winner of the Pulitzer Prize and the Tony Award for Best Play, but that doesn’t mean anything in Hollywood.
Animated Feature Wall-E 50%
Kung-Fu Panda 27%
Bolt 23%
Animated Short Presto 31%
La Maison En Petitis Cubes 19%
This Way Up 18%
Lavatory - Lovestory 17%
Oktapodi 15%
I saw all five of them and thought Oktapodi was short and sweet. Good use of computer graphics. Presto was nothing special story wise and reminded me of a Bugs Bunny/Elmer Fudd cartoon where Fudd chases Bugs around the stage. It was the one where they “get married” and Bugs drops him into a large wedding cake. La Maison En Petitis Cubes was a traditional hand drawn character with no dialogue. This Way Up would be my second choice.
Live Action Short Spielzeugland (Toyland) 26%
New Boy 21%
The Pig 20%
Manon on the Asphalt 17%
Auf der Strecke (On the Line) 16%
I have chosen Toyland because it provided me with an emotional wallop. Very well told in about 13 minutes. Surprisingly On the Line has been chosen by other bloggers/critics to win. Very well done but nothing-special story wise. The Pig can be considered NOT Politically Correct as it rails against members of the Islamic faith. Manon on the Asphalt is why did they nominate this film? Did they need a fifth nomination? As some people said around me at the theatre, "A good student film.”
Song Jai Ho (Slumdog Millionaire) 43%
Down to Earth (Wall-E) 33%
O Saya (Slumdog Millionaire) 24%
Hard category to choose from as when the two Slumdog songs were used in the film there was no English translation. Jai Ho was the song used at the end of the film along side the credits. A good placement and use of the songs, Down to Earth is one of those songs played over the end credits hoping it would get an Oscar nomination. When I saw the film people were walking out during the credits and paying no attention to the song unlike Jai Ho where people stayed to watch it as the credits rolled. Even those that started to walk out stayed to watch. I have no idea where O Saya was used.
After I posted the above I found an English translation for Jai Ho and therefore it is now my choice
